地铁越修越多，客流反而下降了，真的是“没人坐地铁了”吗？作者 | 良豪 编辑 | DR题图 | 《我在他乡挺好的》“坐地铁最怕的事情不是没座位，而是车来了你挤不上去。    

    Newly produced vehicles fill a parking lot at a SAIC-GM industrial park in Wuhan, Central China's Hubei Province on July 10, 2022. Photo: VCG
Global automakers are forging deeper and longer-term ties with China, as the country's role evolves beyond a key market into an increasingly important hub for automotive research and development (R&D) and innovation.
SAIC Motor and General Motors (GM) signed an agreement on Wednesday to extend their joint venture partnership by 20 years to 2047. A month earlier, Honda Motor and GAC Group signed a strategic agreement to renew their joint venture (JV) partnership in GAC Honda, extending their cooperation to 2038 while keeping the existing equity structure unchanged.
The renewed commitments to China by global auto giants signal more than confidence in the long-term potential of the Chinese market. It reflects China's evolving role in the global auto industry, from a manufacturing base and sales market to an increasingly important source of innovation and technologies that shapes the future of mobility, Peng Bo, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, told the Global Times on Sunday.
Behind this shift is the rapid rise of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) and vehicle intelligence, as global competition increasingly centers on batteries, electric powertrains, intelligent driving, automation, software ecosystems and artificial intelligence (AI), Peng said.
From market to innovation
Chinese automakers have accelerated their expansion into global markets. According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China exported 5.096 million vehicles in the first half of the year, up 65.3 percent year-on-year, including 2.355 million NEVs, up 120 percent. In just a few decades, China's auto industry has evolved from learning from and introducing advanced foreign technologies into a major global force in automobile production, exports and innovation.
Such a picture would have been almost unimaginable several decades ago. At the time, China's auto industry was still in its early stages and lagged considerably behind global leaders.
In the 1980s, China began integrating into the global auto industry through the establishment of joint ventures. In 1984, Beijing Jeep, China's first Sino-foreign joint venture automaker, began operations, while Chinese and German partners signed the agreement for Shanghai Volkswagen. More global automakers from countries such as Germany, the US, Japan and France followed, bringing capital, technology, equipment and management expertise that helped accelerate China's auto industry development.
From annual auto production and sales of just over 1 million units in the mid-1990s, China saw the corresponding figures surpass 30 million units in 2025, ranking first globally for the 17th consecutive year. Auto exports also surged from just several thousand units to a record 7.098 million in 2025. 
These figures illustrate the profound transformation of China's auto industry, which has evolved from a latecomer learning from global peers to a major manufacturing powerhouse and increasingly a source of innovation for the global auto industry, experts said.
Chinese experts attributed China's auto rise to its increasingly strong innovation capabilities. Sun Xiaohong, former secretary-general of the automotive branch of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, told the Global Times on Sunday that the close integration of R&D, manufacturing and market application has enabled new technologies to move rapidly from laboratories to mass production, while intense market competition has further accelerated innovation and product iteration.
Latest figures tell the story. China has led the world in automobile patent publications over the past decade, far ahead of the US, Japan and European countries. Patent publications in the NEV sector increased from more than 50,000 in 2016 to over 110,000 in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 17.1 percent. Intelligent connected vehicle patent publications rose from 44,000 to 93,000 over the same period, averaging annual growth of 11.6 percent.
In addition to the R&D capabilities, China's complete and highly efficient supply chain strengthens its industrial edge. The International Energy Agency estimates that battery electric car production costs are over 30 percent lower in China than in advanced economies, mainly attributed to lower battery cost and supply chain.
China's technology company Xiaomi only launched its first EV in 2024, but has quickly emerged as a major player in China's NEV market. Its strategy connects cars with smartphones, apps and smart home devices is creating a more integrated ecosystem. At Xiaomi's EV factory on the outskirts of Beijing, a new car rolls off the production line every 76 seconds on average.
Chinese automaker NIO's Hefei factory is known for its highly intelligent and automated manufacturing, using more than 700 robots and achieving an overall automation rate of 97.5 percent.
BYD's EVs can add 20 kilometers of range in just 10 seconds of charging and up to 400 kilometers in five minutes.
"These examples reflect a broader shift in China's auto industry, where strengths in advanced manufacturing, supply chains, software, AI and rapid technology commercialization are increasingly translating into a competitive edge," said Sun.
Cooperation not competition
The rapid transformation of China's auto industry has put growing pressure on some global auto giants. Honda CEO and President Toshihiro Mibe reportedly said after visiting an auto supplier factory in Shanghai, "We have no chance against this," Nikkei Asia reports.
Ola Kallenius, chairman of the board of management of Mercedes-Benz Group AG, told Chinese media that "In the world's most dynamic automotive market, you have to be here, and we're doubling down on China," People's Daily reported.
"Many major global automakers remain constrained by their long-standing reliance on traditional gasoline vehicles... Although they are pushing ahead with electrification, established technology systems, production networks and traditional development models have slowed," Jia Xinguang, an auto industry analyst, told the Global Times.
By contrast, China's auto industry has made a broad shift toward new technologies, building strengths across the industrial chain and establishing a mature and increasingly self-reliant core technology system, Jia said.
Against this backdrop, foreign automakers' approach to cooperation with China is changing. 
Toyota's evolving China strategy provides a telling example. At the 2026 Beijing auto show, Toyota unveiled its "with China, for China" localization strategy, giving Chinese teams a greater role in management, R&D and product development, the Global Times learned from the Japanese company.
Toyota has expanded its China chief engineer team from four to seven, covering gasoline, hybrid and EVs across different segments. It is also empowering local management and deepening co-creation with Chinese partners to make development faster, according to the company.
A similar shift can be seen at Tesla, whose Shanghai Gigafactory is not only a major global production base, but also a key part of its global supply chain and product development. In the first half of 2026, the factory delivered nearly 468,000 vehicles, up 28.4 percent year-on-year. The Model Y L, led by Tesla's China team in design and development and manufactured in China, is also being rolled out in markets including the US, UAE, South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Australia, according to a press release that the company shared with the Global Times on Friday.
Foreign auto parts suppliers are also stepping up innovation in China. Bosch plans to invest more than 2.5 billion euros in AI development by the end of 2027, with much of its automotive-related AI work focused on China and Europe, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
Amid mounting challenges, China-foreign auto joint ventures are taking a long-term approach and actively reshaping their product strategies, R&D models and cooperation frameworks, Xinhua reported, citing Bi Wenquan, an executive vice president of FAW Toyota Motor Co.
These developments point to a broader shift: China's role for global automakers is expanding from "Made in China" to "R&D in China" and "innovation in China," making win-win cooperation increasingly important, said Sun.
For global automakers seeking to stay competitive in the next wave of industry transformation, turning competition into greater opportunities for cooperation with Chinese companies is increasingly becoming an "imperative" rather than an "option," said Sun.
As John Roth, GM senior vice president and president of GM China, said the renewed partnership "reflects the shared confidence of GM and SAIC in SAIC-GM and its long-term growth potential."
"It is not only about continuing what we have built together. More importantly, it is about building a more competitive, resilient, and sustainable business for the future," Roth said.
。”暑假快结束了，一线城市的牛马们，在反复咀嚼这个真理一个夏天后，终于开始暗自松了一口气。交通运输部8月18日公布的最新一份城市轨道交通运营数据显示，今年7月全国54个城轨城市总客运量29.4亿人次，北京、上海、广州、深圳、成都五座城市当月累计客运量均在2亿人次以上，领跑全国地铁客运榜第一梯队。

全国城市轨道交通的平均客运强度在下滑。（图/社交媒体截图）事实上，虽然你可能依然挤在通勤的车厢里喘不过气，但很反直觉的是，全国城市轨道交通的平均客运强度却在下滑。运营数据还披露，今年7月全国城市轨道交通的总运营里程的平均客运强度为0.804万人次每公里日，比去年同期下降4.85%，是自今年2月以来连续第6个月出现同比回落。

B | 2025年，中国共58座城市运营着382条城市轨道交通线路，总里程超过1.3万公里，其中超过1万公里是地铁，几乎每座地铁城市都有令人爱恨交织的“死亡×号线”。在众多一线大城市里，早晚高峰的地铁列车挤得像沙丁鱼罐头，一旦出现风吹草动，分分钟就会冲上同城热搜。

C |

后面的人想上，那你就能上。（图/社交媒体截图）只是地铁越修越多，客流反而下降了，怎么看都令人难以置信。单看总数，你可能会直接得出“没人坐地铁了”的结论：“这到底是故意的，还是不小心的？”但变化确实也在发生。比如有广州的乘客就提到，市内著名的地铁三号线，过去一些早高峰要排队20分钟才能进闸的站点，如今排队队伍居然只出现在站台，进闸反而顺畅了许多。

D | （图/社交媒体截图）">

江湖里有着“死亡三号线”称号的广州地铁3号线，最近有人发现排队队伍居然只出现在站台，进闸反而顺畅了许多。

E | （图/社交媒体截图）

地铁建好了，坐的人不够无论是在地铁线网密集的北京、上海、广州，还是在线路稀少的二线城市，这个反直觉的趋势，都在加速成为现实。一个直接的原因是：地铁新线密集开通。根据中国城市轨道交通协会今年3月底发布的《城市轨道交通2025年度统计和分析报告》，去年全国共开通了55条（段）以地铁为主的城市轨道交通线路，净增里程超过900公里。

F | 北上广深四座一线城市去年均有新线开通，但真正的“增量王”是济南。这座因泉水地质长期被调侃“修不明白地铁”的城市，去年12月一口气开通4条地铁线路，里程净增121.2公里，增幅位居全国前列。

G | （图/视觉中国）">

济南去年12月一口气开通4条地铁线路，里程净增121.2公里，增幅位居全国前列。（图/视觉中国）对地铁线网已经成熟的城市而言，新线开通最明显的作用便是分流。

H | 广州地铁今年发布的2025年年报和上海市交通委交通指挥中心发布的《2025年上海市轨道交通客流情况分析报告》均显示，新线开通对既有线路的客流量，均产生了明显的稀释效果。全国闻名的广州地铁3号线（含支线）、上海地铁2号线等骨干地铁线路，日均客流都出现了下滑，而广州地铁11号线、上海市域机场线等近两年建成开通的新线路，日均客流量和客运强度均不断上升。

I | 也就是说，地铁里的乘客不是消失了，而是被不同的线路“接”走。

J |

K | （图/良豪 摄）">

2024年底开通的广州地铁11号线，目前已经分流了不少老地铁线路的客流。（图/良豪 摄）出现这种差异，也与人口流动趋势变化有关。不少城市近年都在发力发展次中心，住宅、商场、工作岗位向外扩散，住在市中心以外的人已经找不到进城的理由。数据也在印证这个趋势。北京中心城区常住人口较2015年高点减少了202.9万人；2025年工作日上海轨交外环内客流同比下降1.2%，外环外反而上升了1.5%；广州荔湾、越秀等老城区人口继续外流，白云、番禺等近郊保持净流入。

随着住宅、商场、工作岗位向外扩散，你我熟悉的万达、吾悦、万科里、印象城等大型综合商业体，现在在郊区都能常见。（图/良豪 摄）人往城外走，通向核心区的地铁自然没那么挤了。另一个不可忽视的事实是，中国城市马路上的汽车变得越来越多，低碳环保的新能源汽车变成平民消费品，也让天选地铁人找到了抛弃地铁的理由。2019年底，中国新能源汽车保有量刚刚超过380万辆，而这个数字到了现在已经翻了超过10倍。更不用说风靡全国的电动自行车。北上广深四座城市目前电动自行车的保有量均已超过600万辆，上海更早早地迈过1000万辆的门槛。广州2025年电动自行车日均骑行量约968万人次‌，比地铁全年日均931.2万人次的出行量还要大，换个赛道分薄地铁的客流。

除了私家车外，风靡全国的电动自行车也对地铁客流带去不小的冲击。（图/视觉中国）2019年是中国地铁客流的巅峰之年。当年几乎所有城市的地铁出行量都创下历史纪录，但此后几年，地铁的运营节奏一度被打断，即便如今已经逐步恢复，也很难再有城市能复制那个高点。换言之，即便你在早晚高峰的地铁里依然被挤成一捏就碎的薯片，但在高峰期过去之后，空空荡荡的车厢足以令你怀疑人生。而这样的反差，以后大概率会越来越常见。

假如客流不达标，地铁该怎么办判断一条地铁的真实效率，既不是客流量的绝对值，也不是局部时段的冷热对比，而是“客运强度”。按照国家发改委的要求，拟建地铁线路在初期运营阶段（通常在开通后3年内），其客流强度不得低于‌0.7万人次每公里日——具体来讲，一条全长30公里的地铁，每天客流至少要达到20万人次。

L |

判断一条地铁的真实效率，不是只看车厢是挤成沙丁鱼还是空空荡荡。（图/《我在他乡挺好的》）根据《城市轨道交通2025年度统计分析报告》，全国41个拥有地铁的城市，平均客运强度为0.73万人次每公里日，虽然同比下降3.97%，但整体稳居及格线之上。不过，聚焦到每一座地铁城市上，总体客流达标的城市也仅有14座。交通运输部的最新数据显示，深圳凭1.51万人次每公里日的客运强度登顶全国，云南文山只有0.01万人次每公里日，排名倒数。

M | 按照深圳地铁集团的解释，7月深圳地铁客运强度继续保持全国第一、客运量实现同比上行，是城市通勤刚需、暑运多元客流叠加，以及线网效能释放共同作用的结果。

N | 相比之下，只有一条现代有轨电车线路的文山与普者黑景区高度关联，客流受旅游淡旺季影响明显，旺季时候人满为患，淡季时候低位运行，客运强度起伏不定也在意料之中。

o | 图为深圳地铁岗厦北站。

p | （图/视觉中国）">

深圳凭1.51万人次每公里日的客运强度登顶全国。

q | 图为深圳地铁岗厦北站。（图/视觉中国）大多数客运强度长期不达标的普通地铁城市，受到的关注往往更少。去年11月，大连地铁调整多条地铁的运行计划，间隔大幅拉长至10分钟以上，部分时段间隔长达20分钟，让当地人倍感无奈。2025年宣布给地铁涨价的昆明，在更早的2023年就因为拖欠员工薪资、票据连续逾期等财务困境，引发公众热议。

r | 更不用说曾经零散分布在全国各地、处在公众视野之外的多座“最寂寞的地铁站”。南宁的佛子岭站、重庆的曹家湾站、杭州的丰北站，都曾因为地处荒郊野岭而备受争议，其形成多与城市超前扩张相关。这些前瞻性的开发到底是否值得，往往只能留给时间检验。

杭州地铁丰北站周围曾是一片荒芜，吸引不少杭州人慕名打卡。随着2023年杭州亚运会举办，原本的荒芜变身绿地公园。（图/社交媒体截图）过去很多年，中国城市地铁网络发展迅速，运营线路总长度在全球占据领先地位。

s | 地铁成为城市变大变强的必需品，“坐地铁”更成为大城市居民的生活必修课。但随着经济环境发生变化，房地产市场剧烈降温，许多依赖远期规划修建的地铁，因为通勤需求不足导致客流萎靡，最终变成地方的经济负担。

t | 北上广深等地铁网络发达的大城市，陆续在单调的地铁站里开生鲜超市和咖啡店，想办法和商场B1层抢生意，进而实现客流回升。非一线城市的地铁公司也在想办法。徐州地铁在火车站旁建了一座7000多平方米的“光储充换”综合能源服务站，利用车辆段屋顶光伏发电自用；苏州地铁在站内开了全国第一家社区食堂，20元三菜一汤；沈阳地铁在站厅里辟出1.45公里长的潮流街区，开业三天涌入25万人次；天津地铁把站内商业空间扩到1.1万平方米，从便利店到寄存柜什么都卖。

在地铁站里卖咖啡，现在已经不再是奇怪的事情。（图/视觉中国）卖票养不起地铁，但地铁可以不止卖票。毕竟，尽管客流数据不是地铁好坏的唯一标准，但对运营方来说，每下降一个百分点，意味着一笔真金白银的缺口。随着很多中国城市的地铁从建设期进入了维护期，曾经的蓝图正转化为每天的运营实景。修得起是能力，养得起是智慧，而如何将二者衔接妥当，恰恰是当下我们城市管理最值得深思之处。校对：遇见；排版：福里斯特、孔淑妍《人在地铁挤成相片，为何地铁又都亏钱》南风窗 2025-6-3《从卖早餐到卖榴梿，地铁站快被爆改成商场B1层了》新周刊 2026-1-13